Discuss: How much skill and luck are involved in bowling a 300?

[bomber_comfort]

I was having a conversation with Vaughan White (this guys really is a genius) yesterday afternoon about micro adjustments and how on most oil conditions you need to make micro adjustments every 3-4 frames in order to continue to keep striking and stay ahead of the lanes changing. He made the point that the automatic bowling machine in the USA (named Earl) which can be programmed to bowl a perfect ball every time has yet to bowl a perfect 300 game. Yep not even once!!! I was astonished by this when I first heard it. If you would have asked me before I would have thought the bowling machine might have even bowled a perfect 900 series once or twice. Why? Because on it does the same thing perfectly for 12 balls on the same line and thus not stay ahead of the lane transition. I assume 1 of the 12 balls always leaves a ringing 10 pin or something like that.

Now this brought up the discussion of well the lanes in the USA are a hell of are lot harder than over here and would in fact the bowling machine bowl a 300 on one of our houses here, which traditionally put down easier oil patterns for league.
So please discuss.

Do you think the bowling machine would bowl a 300 on our houses? If so which ones and why?
How much skill and luck is involved in bowling a perfect 300. Do we as humans bowl them because we make the tiny little mistakes that help us carry as the lanes break down even though we have not adjusted and thus get a bit lucky (We carry the shot by a little mistake that the bowling machine would not make and thus not get the carry)? Do we bowl them because you must always stay ahead of the lane transition and make micro adjustments to bowl any 300 game? Or back to back 300’s. What other differences can you think of that makes us able to bowl a 300 or back to back 300s or more and the bowling machine cannot which is perfect and repeatable.

 

[Roysa]

Does Earl have a wrist guard or ipod on?

Just asking.

 

[jimcross]

What a terrible, almost evil, question to ask ! I've bowled eleven strikes in a game many times ( only ever in a row, twice) On none of those occasions have I ever done anything other than try to make each shot EXACTLY the same as the previous one.
Didn't succeed in that, obviously, but often looked identical for three / four in a row - when the strikes looked identical also - then a 'lucky' one, ( often in the pocket but not exact,) or faster or slower,and so on.
On that basis, why 'Earl' doesn't bowl quite a number of 300s is beyond me. Apart from that mongrel 8 pin, most hits that appear perfect, in my case, usually are perfect - the only problem for me appears that I cant do it often enough !

 

[John_Velo]

Hi Mitchell,

I was aware that a machine has not bowled a 300, bottom line is that every time a Reactive ball goes down the lane it removes oil from the lane. End result is that after six shots the ball will start to go high, tripped four pins, solid four pin then it starts leaving splits.

Humans on the other hand are riddled with error so we splay the ball around a little more than a machine and it will take a little longer to get the groove in the oil. We start to get a few lucky hits, then adjust. If the machine was moved a few boards when a high pocket came in I recon we would start to see some 300, 600 etc from the machine.

As humans we need to stay relaxed and try and swing the ball like a machine, like the pro's in the U.S do, Norm Duke being the first that come to mind, loose swing, little wrist cup. Swing and let it go. Turn around and repeat the shot with the knowledge of what he just saw happen.

 

[GeorgeF]

Pretty close to spot on John, EARL (the robot) is deadly accurate and here in lays the problem. With every shot being razor precise Earl takes oil off the lane quicker than humans altering the lane condition very quickly. Subsequently, he has never shot 300 and it's even difficult for him to throw 5-6 in a row. Perhaps if Earl didnt use a reactive ball and maybe used plastic he'd have a better chance as plastic doesnt move the oil around as much as reactive gear but his deadly accuracy would still result in the oil moving at some point.

As bowlers we like to practise repetition however the reality is there are always suptle differences from shot to shot. We can also see the oil breaking down and move through out the game, EARL never has (he could but hasnt).

There is always a tremendous amount of skill involved with bowling a 300 but there is ALWAYS an element of luck and thats why its so elusive!

 

[Casual Observer]

Do you think the bowling machine would bowl a 300 on our houses? If so which ones and why?

A blind goat with 1 leg using a cube shaped plastic ball could throw a 300 game at Mentone at the moment so I wouldnt be surprised if the robot could throw one there.

 

[Ryan_E]

 

[jason_doust]

Pretty close to spot on John, EARL (the robot) is deadly accurate and here in lays the problem. With every shot being razor precise Earl takes oil off the lane quicker than humans altering the lane condition very quickly....

... There is always a tremendous amount of skill involved with bowling a 300 but there is ALWAYS an element of luck and thats why its so elusive!

The problem is not that EARL repeats with mechanical precision. The problem is that modern balls chew the hell out of the pattern. I've bowled a few 300's in present and past eras. With urethane balls that didn't flare, you usually didn't move in a 300 game. But you didn't carry anything like today either. With reactives, I've moved 5 times in a 300 and should have moved a 6th time bowling 299 at Nationals last year. While I've got close in practice a few times, I've never thrown a "perfect" 300. There's always been a shot that I've simply got away with. I've thrown lots of 279's (and one particular 299 with 4 moves at Tuggeranong, but I'm not alone there) that were better than all my 300's, but that's life. Give and take.

I wonder what EARL could do with something which hits like a truck, but removes oil at a very slow rate (like a polished Ebonite Nitro)? That could be awesome! I wonder if EARL could do it with somebody like Chris Barnes doing the driving and estimating the moves? It presents the very interesting question of how much of our pre-emptive move calculation information is visual and how much is kinaesthetic or proprioceptive. Could you make the moves as well in the absence of touch? (Probably, but it wouldn't be as much fun.)

I suspect that EARL wouldn't throw 300 on the big ditch houses without pre-emptive moves for the same reason George points out. We just don't break it down as precisely as EARL, so the pattern holds up longer for us. Another likeable flaw in our make up, I guess. But I suspect he could with a non-reactive, and therefore nowhere near as destructive, urethane ball.

Some lark asked if EARL wears a wrist device. I dare say EARL IS a wrist device, and a few other devices to boot. Yes, I'm sure we could fit him with an MP3 player too...

 

[Emery_Paper]

If they could enhance EARL to loft it 60 feet into the pocket that would solve the problem of oil transition.

 

[phantomD]

Firstly, I agree that Vaughan White is a genius. I've been lucky enough to have some coaching with him and my game really improved as a result, almost overnight.

Secondly, once they can teach a machine to get the "feel" of a lane, then it will bowl a 300 game.

Finally, from experience lofting can have its advantages! Including getting everybody's attention when you're having a bad game!

 

[nev25]

Earl
.
.

 

[Roysa]

Im the 'lark'. Just trying to put some humour into a forum that does not have much of a sense of humour - at all !!!

Its just a game.

I was also pre-empting and trying to avoid this thread turning into a negative b**** fight about something to bring the game down... so far so good.

 

[da_cowman]

Hate to be 'that guy', but having bowled league in 2-3 US houses in 2008-2010, I can say that they aren't any harder then our ones. If not easier. Which is truly scary.

As for why EARL hasn't bowled 300, I can't add much to what has already been said. There is such a thing as too good. Although, he'd be great to have in practice for the US Open!!

As for 300's being luck or skill. I'm the as same Jason, I've bowled some 300's with a few shoddy frames, and I've bowled some brilliant 250+'s. But I've also bowled a few damn good 300's and some shoddy 250+'s. You gotta get a little lucky, but you still gotta do a hell of a lot of things right.

Cow

 

[bluey]

Maybe Earl gets a little nervous and can't control his breathing in the clutch? He probably needs a "grip it an rip it" button for the 12th. Or they haven't got the right music in the ipod yet.

 

[Fitzy]

Damn!!!!!

Maybe I should look at changing how I bowl!! Even robots are bowling two-ahh-'handed' now days!! LOL

 

[bowlrig]

maybe Earl can not make those little concious & subconcious adjustments that are needed.

Rob

 

[willey]

I'm with the Cowman, I know of one Proprietor, a couple of years ago saying, in 1 12 month period, they had at least 6 guys start with back to back 300's only to bomb out in the last game, that was just 1 Centre. This tells me it is OH so easy over there, I also remember Andrew Frawley saying he shot an 800/3 in a Centre over there, many years ago. I've seen some of the high scoring some Centre's boast about in the Bowl Tech site, they have a guy named Jerry Kessler who helps with Patterns for High Scoring, Jerry himself has Bowled more than 70 300 games.

I'm sure Wayne Chester can verify how easy it is. He probably knows Jerry.

willey

 

[cranky dave]

Having bowled my third 300 last night I can say that I had 1 shot that was wide and came back very flat almost resulting in an embarrassing 8-10 and then 1 very lucky shot on the 10th which was high with a very late falling 4 pin. I made a slight adjustment for the 11th and nailed the last 2. Out of the 12 shots 10 were as flush as can be. So yes I think it takes both luck and the skill to be able to recognise the need for subtle adjustments on the run.

 

[wchester]

There is a lot of difference between the ball hitting flush pocket and making a perfect shot. Therein lies the problem I have with today's high scoring conditions AND balls.

 

[Toon]

The US record for a league average is Jeff Carter. Who I believe has never done well in the PBA. Over a 12 month period he averaged 263 or so and last time I checked he had something along the lines of 91 300 games.